As a student of politics, my classes often ask me to take historical events and common themes to predict the outcome of a number of given contemporary scenarios (Note my position on political predictions). Iran seems to be the example that comes up more often than any other. Iran is an interesting case because it is attempting to force the international community to accept its terms of negotiation with very few concessions. The most common consensus is that Iran will have no future if it doesn’t liberalize. Oil profits will only get them so far.
Over at The League of Ordinary Gentlemen, there is a discussion about the prospects of Islam liberalizing so its values can come more into line with those of the modern western world:
Over the next few decades, it will not surprise me if major Muslim leaders begin emphasizing how Islam preserved the works of great philosophers and fostered scientific learning throughout the Middle Ages as evidence of their faith’s integral relationship with science and modernity. In fact, it’s already pretty common to hear similar talking points from moderate Islamic leaders in the United States and Europe.
Christianity has taken a similar direction over the last millennium, culminating in Vatican II for the Catholic Church. However, there are a few aspects of Islam’s current political position that could potentially hinder liberalization and even potentially exacerbate international isolation. Primarily, liberalism is a western construct, created in the Judeo-Christian mindset. As Europe moved towards more liberal societies, Islam evolved in a different direction. Liberalism emerged at a time when Europeans were able to accept a move away from divinity. To date, Islam has not shown great progress in this direction.
I realize that the author of the post isn’t expecting Islam to become fully liberalized and modernized in the next few decades–Christianity still has problems reconciling itself with enlightenment thought–and I agree that we will probably be seeing a more religiously tame Islam emerge in the coming decades. As for Islam on a global stage, this will be harder to predict. Countries such as Turkey have managed to balance Islam and the idea of a modern state. Then there is, of course, the relatively young state of Iran, who is the opposite. From Andrew Sullivan.
